Brent jumps 4% to $98 as Iran war fears ease

Summary

• Brent climbed about 4% to roughly $98 a barrel Thursday, recovering part of a three-session slide.
• Oil had closed Wednesday down 9% after Republicans suffered a heavy midterm defeat in Congress.
• Swings of this size move revenue projections for Gulf producers that budget around crude prices.

The latest

Oil prices rose about 4% at the close of trading on Thursday, 5 November 2026, with Brent crude at roughly $98 a barrel, clawing back part of the losses accumulated over the previous three sessions. The Iraqi News Agency reported that investors are tracking the course of the American-Israeli war with Iran as the main driver of the move.

Details

• The move: Brent settled near $98 a barrel after gaining close to 4% on Thursday, according to the Iraqi News Agency. The rebound recovered only part of what the market had shed, as prices had been falling for three consecutive sessions before Thursday's turn.
• Wednesday's drop: Oil ended trading on Wednesday, 4 November, down 9%, the third straight losing session. The agency tied that slide to the sweeping defeat Republicans suffered in the US congressional midterm elections, which reshaped expectations about Washington's room for military action.
• The political read: Sources cited by the Iraqi News Agency said President Donald Trump is now weaker facing a Democratic Congress capable of constraining his military options, giving him a stronger incentive to pursue a deal. The same sources assessed that a full-scale attack on Iran has become less likely.
• The war factor: Traders are pricing the trajectory of the American-Israeli war with Iran rather than any announced supply change, the agency reported. The direction of that conflict, not production data, is what moved the benchmark in both directions across the week.
• The volatility: A 9% fall followed within a day by a near 4% gain puts the weekly range in double digits. For exporters whose budgets are built on an assumed average crude price, that spread is the difference between a surplus and a shortfall over a full quarter.
• Gulf exposure: No single state was named as the beneficiary of the rebound. The effect is broadly regional, reaching Gulf oil producers whose public spending plans track the benchmark price closely, and Iraq among the exporters watching the same number.
• What was not stated: The agency did not identify the sources behind the assessment on Trump's calculations, and it set out no production or inventory figures alongside the price move. It also gave no projection for where Brent settles next.
• The framing: The report was published as a market follow-up by the Iraqi News Agency rather than as an official Iraqi government statement, and carried no comment from any Iraqi ministry on the price swing or its budget implications.

Between the lines

The sequence described runs from politics to prices rather than the reverse: the midterm result preceded the three-session slide, and the easing of attack expectations preceded Thursday's rebound. On that reading, the market is trading a risk premium on war rather than any change in barrels actually reaching buyers, which leaves the $98 level as exposed to the next political signal as it was to the last.

What's next

Watch whether Brent holds near $98 into the next sessions, any move by the incoming Democratic Congress to constrain military options, and any signal from Washington or Tehran pointing toward negotiations.

Source: Iraqi News Agency (INA)