Iran's crude exports hit zero as US blockade empties Kharg Island

Summary

• Iranian crude shipments fell from about 1 million barrels daily in July to zero since late August.
• No crude tanker has docked at Kharg Island since late August, satellite imagery shows.
• Chinese refiners hunting replacements have pushed oil prices and freight costs to record territory.

The latest

Iran's main crude loading terminals have sat empty of tankers for weeks under a US naval blockade reimposed three months ago, with exports collapsing from roughly 1 million barrels a day in July to zero since late August, according to Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa. It is the longest stoppage at Kharg Island since the Iran war began in late February.

Details

• The satellite evidence: Bloomberg's analysis drew on imagery from the European Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites at intervals of no more than three days. A very large crude carrier typically needs 24 to 48 hours to load, meaning a loading operation would be difficult to miss between passes.
• The one exception: A vessel was berthed on 10 October after a 40-day gap, but tracking data identified it as the chemical and products tanker Clavel, which shuttles between Iranian ports. At least two more ships appeared between 12 and 15 September at berths reserved for LPG and sulphur, not crude.
• The watchdog's account: United Against Nuclear Iran said no tanker loaded with Iranian oil has left the country or adjacent waters since the blockade was reimposed in mid-July. Loadings had briefly concentrated in the first half of July, after a ceasefire agreement temporarily lifted the blockade.
• The market fallout: Iran exported about 650 million barrels of crude in the year to April, mostly to China. Its disappearance has pushed Chinese refiners toward alternative barrels, intensifying competition for cargoes and tankers, lifting oil prices and driving a historic jump in shipping costs.
• Attacks escalating: Tehran intensified strikes on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz as its own exports stalled, targeting 25 ships in the first half of October against 18 incidents through all of September and 15 in August, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations.
• The tracking gap: Platforms disagree sharply. Hormuz Strait Monitor logged two transits in 24 hours, ShipFinder counted 18 on Sunday 18 October, and Windward recorded 12 the same day, including 4 vessels with automatic identification systems switched off.
• Phantom transits: Windward said on X that 61.2% of transits recorded through Hormuz during August never actually happened, calling them "fake transits" generated by GPS jamming at a time when real ship movement was close to frozen.
• Jamming scale: Windward data for the third quarter of 2026, cited by Second Line of Defense, showed an average 5,131 jamming incidents daily worldwide affecting more than 124,000 vessels. In the Gulf and Gulf of Oman, 142 ships were affected Sunday, down 46.7% from the prior seven-day average.
• Gulf emptying out: Vessels inside the Arabian Gulf fell from 4,635 on Saturday to 4,180 on Sunday, a drop of 455, per ShipFinder AIS data. Only 113 oil tankers and 4 LNG carriers remained, underlining how tightly energy shipping is constrained.
• Qatar's detour: An LNG carrier loaded in Qatar during August is sailing north through the Red Sea toward Poland, a rare routing. Poland's Orlen holds a long-term supply contract with QatarEnergy that stalled after drone attacks on Ras Laffan in March.

Background

Iran's Kharg Island handles nearly all of the country's crude exports, with the Jask terminal east of Hormuz taking a limited share. Satellite imagery showed Jask also empty of tankers.

Between the lines

The divergence between platform counts is a measurement problem, not noise: with AIS transponders off and GPS signals spoofed, higher transit tallies do not indicate recovery. ShipFinder's breakdown shows traffic skewed to regional service vessels, small product tankers and bulk carriers, while VLCCs and LNG carriers stay restricted.

What's next

Whether the Poland-bound LNG cargo completes its Red Sea passage after a small boat fired on an LNG tanker near Mukalla on Saturday, and whether any crude tanker returns to Kharg Island as European storage sits at decade-low seasonal levels.

Source: Bloomberg, Windward, ShipFinder, Hormuz Strait Monitor, Kpler, Vortexa, UK Maritime Trade Operations, Second Line of Defense, Asharq Bloomberg