Analysts lift 2026 Brent forecast to $89 on Hormuz disruption

Summary

• A Reuters poll of 30 analysts sees Brent averaging $89.05 a barrel in 2026.
• That is up from $85.08 in the previous month's survey, with WTI at $83.90.
• Forecasters now treat Gulf supply risk, not weak demand, as the dominant price driver.

The latest

Brent crude is now expected to average $89.05 a barrel in 2026, nearly $4 above last month's projection, according to a Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts published September 30. U.S. crude is seen averaging $83.90, up from $80.20. Respondents cited prolonged disruption to Gulf exports as the force outweighing concerns about demand growth.

Details

• The numbers: The September poll put Brent at $89.05 a barrel for 2026, raised from $85.08 in the August survey, and West Texas Intermediate at $83.90, up from $80.20. Individual Brent estimates ranged widely, from $77.27 at the low end to $97.60 at the high end, pointing to sharp disagreement over how the disruption resolves.
• The core assumption: Several analysts told Reuters the market has grown increasingly convinced that a full restoration of exports through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely in the near term, leaving inventories to absorb much of the supply shortfall rather than fresh barrels.
• DBS view: Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS Bank, said forecasters are not betting on a resolution to the conflict within the next three to six months. He did not attach a probability to any alternative outcome or name a date at which the assumption would be revisited.
• HSBC base case: HSBC said its base-case scenario assumes only gradual improvement in shipping conditions and a "structurally impaired" Hormuz, with liquids flows recovering slowly and staying far below the roughly 19-20 million barrels per day that transited the strait before the conflict.
• Goldman's count: Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with their 2025 average, after exports doubled during September. That figure includes dark exports — shipments by vessels operating with location transponders switched off.
• Chinese demand: China's oil imports have risen over the past two months, reaching nearly 9 million barrels per day in August, though the level remains below historical norms. Analysts described the country's stockpile buffer as beginning to shrink, reducing the cushion available to absorb further supply interruptions.
• Risk balance: Most respondents continue to see supply risks rather than demand weakness as the primary driver of prices through 2026, a reversal of the framing that dominated earlier forecasting rounds centred on consumption growth in major economies.
• The 2027 turn: The same analysts expect the market to shift back into surplus during 2027, on the assumption that shipping conditions improve, Gulf production gradually recovers and non-OPEC supply keeps expanding. No month or quarter was specified for that transition.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly 19-20 million barrels per day of liquids before the conflict, making it the single largest chokepoint in global oil trade. Disruption there removes volumes that cannot be quickly replaced by alternative routes.

Between the lines

The spread between the lowest and highest Brent estimates — $77.27 against $97.60, more than $20 — shows forecasters are not disagreeing about demand but about one variable: how long Hormuz stays impaired. Goldman's recovery figure of 23.3 million bpd and HSBC's structurally impaired base case sit on opposite sides of that question, which is why the consensus average moved up while conviction stayed thin.

What's next

Watch the next monthly Reuters poll for whether the Brent consensus holds near $89, Chinese import volumes for September and October, and any measurable change in transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Source: Reuters