Oman GDP grows 3.8% in first half, oil drives gains

Summary

• Oman's real GDP grew 3.8% in the first half of 2026, the Economy Ministry told the IMF.
• Oil activities expanded 9.7% while non-oil activities grew just 1.8% over the same period.
• The gap leaves growth tied to a sector Oman's 2040 diversification strategy is designed to reduce.

The latest

Oman's real GDP expanded 3.8% in the first half of 2026 at constant prices, according to figures the Ministry of Economy presented to an International Monetary Fund mission. Oil activities grew 9.7% over the period. Non-oil activities, the engine Oman's long-term strategy depends on, rose 1.8%.

Details

• The headline figure: The Ministry of Economy put real GDP growth at 3.8% for the first half of 2026, measured at constant prices, in a presentation delivered to the visiting IMF mission as part of the 2026 Article IV consultations, according to the Oman News Agency.
• The oil split: Oil activities grew 9.7% in the same period, more than five times the pace of the rest of the economy, according to the ministry's figures. That makes hydrocarbons the dominant contributor to the half-year result rather than one component among several.
• The non-oil reading: Non-oil activities expanded 1.8%, according to the same figures presented to the mission. Diversification away from hydrocarbons is the central objective of Oman Vision 2040, which makes the non-oil rate the more closely watched of the two numbers.
• The mission: The IMF delegation is visiting Oman from 25 October to 8 November 2026 for the Article IV consultations, the annual review the Fund conducts with member states covering economic and financial policies.
• Regional conflicts: Talks covered the direct and indirect effects of regional conflicts on oil and gas markets, foreign trade and supply chains, according to the Oman News Agency. Shipping and insurance costs were discussed alongside the impact on the industrial and logistics sectors.
• The planning horizon: The discussions also took in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan covering 2026 to 2030 and the targets set under Oman Vision 2040, placing the half-year figures against the country's medium- and long-term development framework.
• What was not given: The ministry's presentation as reported did not break down which non-oil sectors drove the 1.8% figure, nor did it attach a full-year growth projection for 2026 to the half-year result.
• The publication: The Oman News Agency carried the figures on 4 November 2026. Oman Daily published the same account that day at 16:13.
• Also: An IMF Article IV mission is in the country through 8 November.

Background

Article IV consultations are the IMF's annual bilateral review of a member state's economy. The mission meets officials, assesses policy, and its findings typically feed into a staff report and an Executive Board discussion later in the cycle.

Between the lines

The two growth rates point in different directions. A 9.7% oil expansion against 1.8% elsewhere means the headline 3.8% rests on the sector Vision 2040 is meant to reduce reliance on, and it leaves the aggregate figure exposed to the same oil and gas market swings the mission discussed under regional conflicts. The Eleventh Five-Year Plan, also on the agenda, covers the years in which that gap is supposed to narrow.

What's next

The IMF mission concludes on 8 November. Its concluding statement, and any subsequent staff report, would set out the Fund's own assessment of Oman's growth composition and its five-year plan targets.

Source: Oman News Agency, Oman Daily