Anthropic files IPO prospectus, targeting valuation near $1.75tn

Summary

• Anthropic published its IPO prospectus Monday, launching one of the largest listings ever attempted.
• Existing investors now expect a $1.5tn-$1.75tn valuation, down from $2tn-plus expectations in August.
• The listing becomes the biggest test yet of investor appetite for the AI boom.

The latest

Anthropic published its long-awaited IPO prospectus on Monday, setting up one of the largest initial public offerings ever and the sharpest test to date of investor appetite for artificial intelligence. The Financial Times reported the document details for the first time how the Claude developer plans to sustain growth that lifted it from a $183bn valuation just over a year ago to $965bn in May. Bankers will set the price in the coming weeks.

Details

• The valuation gap: Existing Anthropic investors expect the company to seek a valuation of between $1.5tn and $1.75tn, according to the FT. That marks a retreat from August, when several backers said they expected a listing at $2tn or more, a swing of hundreds of billions within months.
• The revenue picture: Anthropic recently told backers that third-quarter revenue jumped nearly 50 per cent from the previous three months to $16.8bn, and that the company was profitable on an adjusted basis. It has not disclosed results on a fully reported basis alongside that adjusted figure.
• The timing: Publication of the prospectus puts Anthropic on track to list after the US midterm elections on November 3 but before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. Companies rarely list between Thanksgiving and year-end, leaving a narrow window investors had feared was closing.
• The market backdrop: The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has fallen just over 7 per cent from the record high it touched on October 6, the FT reported, a weaker setting than the one Anthropic's backers were pricing in over the summer as debt-fuelled AI investment draws growing scrutiny.
• The banks: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are among the investment banks that will fix Anthropic's valuation after conversations with investors over the coming weeks. No pricing date or share count has been announced.
• The rivalry: Anthropic has emerged from the shadow of OpenAI this year, surpassing the ChatGPT creator in revenues and in traction with business customers, according to the FT. Anthropic was founded in 2021 by seven former OpenAI researchers and engineers.
• The origin story: Those founders left after becoming disillusioned with the approach to AI safety at Sam Altman's lab, the FT reported. Safety positioning has since become central to how Anthropic presents itself to customers and, now, to public market investors.
• The safety debate: Chief executive Dario Amodei, along with Altman and Elon Musk, has called for a slowdown in AI research to ensure the technology does not run catastrophically out of control. The company goes public as that debate intensifies.

Background

Anthropic raised at a $965bn valuation in its last private round in May, more than five times its $183bn valuation just over a year ago. That trajectory is the growth record the prospectus must now justify to public investors.

Between the lines

The $250bn-plus gap between August expectations and today's $1.5tn-$1.75tn range is the clearest market signal in the filing. Nothing disclosed about revenue explains it: sales rose nearly 50 per cent in a quarter. The reset tracks the Nasdaq 100's 7 per cent slide and the narrowing calendar instead, suggesting pressure on the AI trade broadly rather than on Anthropic's own numbers.

What's next

Watch the price range Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs set after investor meetings in the coming weeks, the November 3 midterm results, and whether Anthropic lists before the November 26 Thanksgiving holiday.

Source: Financial Times