Gulf crude exports top pre-war levels as tanker attacks mount

Summary

• Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four days in late September, Kpler data showed.
• Shipments averaged 18 million bpd before the US-Israeli war with Iran began February 28, 2026.
• At least seven tanker attacks were reported in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest

Crude flows out of the Middle East climbed above their pre-war baseline on four of the final seven days of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day, provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed. The rebound came as attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz continued, with shipping intelligence firm Marisks counting at least seven incidents.

Details

• The numbers: Kpler recorded crude exports above pre-war levels on September 24 and again between September 27 and 29, in a range of 19.5 million to 22.5 million bpd. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, against an average of 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.
• What is counted: The figures cover transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, terminal loadings, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Including oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids, total volumes averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30, Kpler said.
• Gas flows: Liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to their highest monthly level since February, Kpler data showed, pointing to a recovery extending beyond crude to the Gulf's gas export chain.
• A data gap: The tallies exclude any vessel that may have crossed the strait with its Automatic Identification System transponder switched off to avoid detection, meaning real traffic through the waterway could be higher than the tracked figures suggest.
• The attacks: Marisks reported at least seven incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz in a report issued Saturday, October 3. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has logged at least one attack a day in the strait or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
• The Kazimah III: The very large crude carrier, owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, was reportedly struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile in the strait, setting off a fire on board. All crew members were reported safe and evacuated. Kpler tracked the vessel discharging 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Oman's Ras Markaz port on September 17.
• The threat picture: Marisks assessed that merchant ships crossing the strait face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat" given the sharp rise in traffic, and said current intelligence suggests Iranian forces may be firing missiles into a predetermined engagement area rather than selecting individual vessels.
• The waterway: Before the war began on February 28, 2026, the strait handled roughly 125 large commercial vessels a day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container ships, carrying about 20% of the world's daily crude oil and LNG supply.

Background

The US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, 2026. In the twelve months before it started, Middle East crude exports averaged 18 million bpd, the benchmark against which the late-September recovery is now measured.

Between the lines

The two trends run against each other: export volumes have recovered past pre-war levels while attack frequency rises, and Marisks links the two directly, judging that the surge in traffic itself widens the pool of radar signatures inside the engagement area. If weapons are locking onto whatever they find rather than chosen targets, higher throughput raises exposure for every operator crossing the strait.

What's next

Watch whether UKMTO's daily incident reporting continues past early October, whether Kpler's seven-day moving average holds above 18 million bpd, and whether owners such as Kuwait Oil Tanker Company adjust routing after the Kazimah III strike.

Source: Reuters (Florence Tan), citing Kpler and Marisks