Iraq's oil exports rebound to 2.7 million bpd after May collapse

Summary

• Iraq is exporting about 2.7 million barrels per day, up from roughly 200,000 bpd in May.
• Oil revenue funds 93% of Iraq's public income, the central bank told the state news agency.
• Baghdad is pushing northern volumes toward the 750,000 bpd minimum set with Turkey.

The latest

Iraq's crude exports have climbed back to about 2.7 million barrels per day, more than ten times the roughly 200,000 bpd recorded in May. Oil Ministry spokesman Salim al-Rikabi told the Iraqi News Agency on Tuesday 13 October 2026 that the ministry is working to lift volumes through both southern and northern outlets as the Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts regional energy flows.

Details

• The numbers: Al-Rikabi put current exports at about 2.7 million bpd against roughly 200,000 bpd in May, according to the Iraqi News Agency. The recovery restores most of the volume lost during the earlier disruption, though the ministry did not break down how much of the increase came from each route.
• Southern outlets: The southern terminals on the Gulf carry the bulk of Iraq's exported crude, al-Rikabi said. Those outlets remain exposed to the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint the spokesman described as the center of a global energy crisis in his remarks to the agency.
• Northern routes: Exports through northern outlets run at about 300,000 bpd, the spokesman said, a figure that covers trucked crude alongside shipments from the Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk fields. No timeline was given for raising that total.
• Kirkuk-Ceyhan: The pipeline to Turkey's Mediterranean coast has a design capacity of 1.5 million bpd, the agency reported, while current flows stand at roughly 300,000 bpd. That leaves the line running at about a fifth of what it was built to carry.
• The Turkey deal: An interim agreement between Baghdad and Ankara sets a floor of 750,000 bpd through Kirkuk-Ceyhan, according to the Iraqi News Agency, which also cites a separate target of about 700,000 bpd for the same line. The two figures were not reconciled.
• New pipelines: Al-Rikabi said the ministry is negotiating two new export lines, Basra-Haditha-Fishkhabour and Basra-Haditha-Baniyas, designed to move crude away from the Hormuz route. He did not name the counterparties, the cost, or a construction start date.
• The budget stake: Oil revenue funds 93% of Iraq's public income, the Central Bank of Iraq told the Iraqi News Agency. That dependence makes export volume the single largest variable in the state's ability to meet salary and spending commitments.
• Currency pressure: The export recovery feeds dollar inflows at a moment when Iraq is absorbing the effects of an exchange rate adjustment. Higher crude earnings strengthen the central bank's capacity to supply hard currency to the market.

Background

Hormuz is the maritime passage handling most Gulf crude shipments, including Iraq's southern exports. Kirkuk-Ceyhan is Baghdad's only major pipeline outlet bypassing it, running north through Turkey to the Mediterranean.

Between the lines

The gap between the 1.5 million bpd design capacity of Kirkuk-Ceyhan and the 300,000 bpd actually flowing through it explains why Baghdad is negotiating two new lines at once. With 93% of public income tied to crude and the southern terminals exposed to Hormuz, a single northern route operating far below its contractual floor leaves the budget concentrated on one vulnerable corridor.

What's next

Watch whether northern flows move from 300,000 bpd toward the 750,000 bpd minimum set with Turkey, and whether Baghdad announces counterparties or a start date for the Basra-Haditha-Fishkhabour and Basra-Haditha-Baniyas lines.

Source: Iraqi News Agency (INA)