Iraq's oil revenue halves in seven months, falling 53%

Summary

• Iraq's oil revenue fell 53% in January–July 2026, to 30.4 trillion dinars.
• Total state revenue dropped 45.7% to 39.1 trillion dinars over the same period.
• Non-oil income rose but covers only a fraction of the shortfall, Baghdad says.

The latest

Iraq's oil revenue collapsed by 53% in the first seven months of 2026, falling from about 65 trillion dinars a year earlier to 30.4 trillion, the Federal Revenue Distribution Monitoring Authority said. Total state revenue shrank 45.7% over the same stretch. Oil's share of all government income slipped from roughly 90% to 78%, the authority's figures showed.

Details

• The headline figure: The Federal Revenue Distribution Monitoring Authority reported oil receipts of 30.4 trillion dinars for January through July 2026, against about 65 trillion dinars in the same months of 2025 — a 53% drop that erases more than half the state's single largest income stream in one year.
• Total revenue: Finance Ministry data put overall state revenue at roughly 39.1 trillion dinars for the seven-month period, down 45.7% from 72 trillion dinars a year earlier. The gap between the two declines shows oil losses outpacing every other line in the budget.
• Non-oil income: Non-oil revenue rose 23.5% to about 8.7 trillion dinars from 7.1 trillion dinars, according to the same figures. In absolute terms the increase is roughly 1.6 trillion dinars, set against an oil shortfall measured in tens of trillions.
• The official view: Suzan Abdullah Mohammed, head of the Federal Revenue Distribution Monitoring Authority, said the rise in non-oil revenue remains limited compared with the scale of the decline in oil returns.
• Revenue mix: Oil's share of total government income fell from about 90% to 78% over the period. The shift reflects a shrinking oil base more than a growing non-oil one, since the denominator itself contracted by nearly half.
• The comparison base: All figures are year-on-year against the first seven months of 2025, covering January through July. The authority did not publish a month-by-month breakdown showing when the decline accelerated.
• What is unstated: Neither the authority nor the Finance Ministry figures identified the drivers behind the fall — whether export volumes, price levels, or payment timing — and no full-year projection was issued alongside the seven-month data.
• Budget exposure: Iraq funds salaries, pensions and public investment overwhelmingly from oil receipts. A revenue base of 39.1 trillion dinars against last year's 72 trillion narrows the room for spending commitments set when crude income was near 90% of the total.

Background

Iraq has relied on crude exports for the overwhelming share of federal revenue for two decades, leaving the budget directly exposed to swings in oil markets. Successive governments have pledged to widen the non-oil tax and customs base without changing that dependence materially.

Between the lines

The 23.5% jump in non-oil revenue is the only positive figure in the release, and the authority's own chief moved to limit how far it can be read. Measured against an oil shortfall of roughly 35 trillion dinars, an extra 1.6 trillion dinars does not substitute for the loss — it marks the distance diversification still has to travel before it affects budget capacity.

What's next

Watch for full-year 2026 revenue data, any Finance Ministry statement on the drivers of the decline, and whether the 2027 budget is redrawn around a lower oil baseline.

Source: Qatar News Agency (QNA)