Saudi crude exports jump 84% in September, near pre-war levels

Key Points

1. Saudi crude exports averaged about 6.27 million barrels a day in September, Kepler data show.
2. That is 97.5% of the 12-month average before the Middle East war began, per OPEC data.
3. Higher volumes at $100 Brent lift Riyadh's oil revenue and ease global supply strain.

The latest:

Saudi crude exports averaged roughly 6.27 million barrels a day through September 24, an 84% jump from August’s 3.41 million, according to commodity-tracking firm Kepler. The recovery was driven by Ras Tanura, the world’s largest oil port, after a drone strike temporarily shut the East-West pipeline. Saudi Aramco declined to comment to Asharq Bloomberg.

Details:

• The figures: Kepler’s Homayoun Falakshahi, its head of oil market analysis, put the September daily average at about 6.27 million barrels through the 24th, against 3.41 million barrels a day in August. The month-on-month gain of roughly 84% is the steepest since the war began.
• The benchmark: September shipments equal about 97.5% of the average monthly Saudi export level in the 12 months preceding the war, based on OPEC data. They remain around 15% below February 2026 volumes, meaning the recovery restores the pre-war baseline but not the kingdom’s recent peak.
• Competing counts: Bloomberg-compiled data published Friday showed Saudi exports running at 5.28 million barrels a day through September 23 — also the highest since the war started, but close to one million barrels a day below Kepler’s estimate. Neither firm’s methodology reconciles the gap.
• Ras Tanura’s rebound: The Gulf terminal shipped about 3.88 million barrels a day in September, more than quadruple its August level, Kepler said. Loadings there had stopped entirely in April and May at the height of the war, when Aramco routed barrels overland instead.
• The pipeline attack: The East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to reach Yanbu on the Red Sea, was struck on September 10 by drones launched from Iraq. It returned to partial service on September 22 after two damaged pumping stations were repaired.
• Yanbu’s share: Exports from the Red Sea port reached 1.86 million barrels a day in September, Kepler said, less than half the 4.19 million barrels a day peak recorded in April when the Gulf route was shut and the overland line carried the bulk of Saudi crude.
• Untracked cargoes: Kepler logged about 511,000 barrels a day in September with no identified loading port, typically because tankers switch off automatic tracking transponders. Falakshahi assessed that most of those cargoes were loaded at Yanbu.
• US naval cover: Improved protection by the American navy for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz allowed Gulf loadings to continue after the pipeline was hit, according to the export data, keeping Saudi barrels moving to global markets through the temporary outage.
• Price effect: Brent averaged about $100 a barrel in September against $90 in August. Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, said the clearest effect on the Saudi economy is higher revenue, “which supports government revenues and therefore government spending.”

Between the lines:

The export mix tells the real story: Ras Tanura quadrupling while Yanbu sits at less than half its April peak means Riyadh has swung back to the Hormuz route now that naval escorts are in place. Malik reads the swing as evidence of infrastructure flexibility — the ability to shift between two outlets rather than depend on either.

What’s next

Watch whether the East-West pipeline returns to full capacity after its partial September 22 restart, whether October Kepler and Bloomberg counts converge, and whether Brent holds near $100 a barrel.