ADNOC Gas Beats Forecasts, Lifts 2026 Profit Target to $4 Billion

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Key Points

1. ADNOC Gas posted $1.336 billion in third-quarter net profit, roughly 14% above analyst forecasts.
2. Export loadings recovered after Hormuz shipping disruptions had curbed LNG, LPG and naphtha cargoes.
3. The company now expects at least $4 billion in 2026 profit, contingent on shipping conditions.

The latest:

Third-quarter net profit at ADNOC Gas reached $1.336 billion, beating the $1.17 billion analysts had expected by about 14%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue fell 11% year-on-year to $5.252 billion but also came in above forecasts, according to a disclosure filed with the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange. Profit was down 0.15% from a year earlier and roughly doubled from the second quarter.

Details:

• The guidance: The results pushed ADNOC Gas to raise its full-year net profit outlook to no less than $4 billion. The company said in its disclosure that meeting that figure remains dependent on how maritime navigation in the region develops, without setting out a scenario in which the target would be missed.
• Export recovery: Volumes of exported and traded liquids rose 69% against the second quarter, after Hormuz disruptions had restricted shipments of liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha. The company’s share of volumes from the joint LNG project nearly doubled over the same period.
• Earnings drivers: Stronger exports, higher domestic demand and a robust performance from the sulfur segment lifted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 70% quarter-on-quarter to about $2 billion, still below the year-earlier level.
• The constraint: Liquids export volumes stayed below last year’s levels despite the quarterly improvement, and shipping disruption limited the company’s ability to capture the full benefit of higher global prices. ADNOC noted that the Asian JKM LNG price index rose 52% year-on-year during the third quarter.
• Habshan repairs: ADNOC Gas said rehabilitation of damaged units at the Habshan complex is progressing on the approved schedule, targeting full restoration of operating capacity by the second quarter of 2027. The company did not break down the remaining work by unit.
• The expansion: The company is pressing ahead with a growth program covering rich gas development, Ruwais LNG, Meram and Estidama, part of roughly $28 billion in planned investment between 2026 and 2030 aimed at raising production capacity and long-term earnings.
• The dividend: The board approved a cash distribution of $940 million for the third quarter, equivalent to 4.5 fils per share, to be paid in December.
• Market backdrop: European gas prices fell as much as 3.8% on Monday on signs of progress in peace talks over Iran, after Democrats won control of both chambers of the US Congress, a shift analysts say could constrain President Donald Trump’s ability to continue the war.
• Supply picture: The war has disrupted close to a fifth of global LNG exports, leaving European inventories unusually low heading into winter. EU storage sites were 74% full against a five-year seasonal average of 90%, raising the prospect of sharper competition with Asia for cargoes, according to Bloomberg.

Background:

Middle East LNG exports remain well below pre-war levels despite rising in October, Bloomberg reported earlier. Analysts at Energy Aspects expect severe supply disruption to persist into the first quarter of 2027, given geopolitical risks to energy flows across the region.

Between the lines:

The company’s own guidance ties its $4 billion target to shipping conditions it does not control, and the quarter shows why: a 52% jump in Asian LNG prices translated into higher profit only where cargoes could actually move. ING analysts argue the US political shift raises hopes of an end to the war, but Europe’s 74% storage level points to a supply shortfall that outlasts any single quarter’s recovery.

What’s next

Watch the December dividend payment, monthly Middle East LNG export volumes against pre-war levels, and whether Habshan rehabilitation stays on the second-quarter 2027 schedule the company has set.