LNG Tankers Clearing Hormuz Hit Highest Level Since February War

Key Points

1. 31 loaded LNG tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz in October, ship-tracking data showed.
2. That is up from 23 in September and the most since February's US-Iran conflict.
3. Qatari and Emirati flows are recovering, easing a disruption that reshaped Asian gas supply routes.

The latest:

Thirty-one loaded liquefied natural gas tankers passed out through the Strait of Hormuz in October, the highest monthly count since the US-Iran conflict disrupted shipping in February, according to S&P Global Energy vessel-tracking data. Of those, 23 loaded at Qatar’s Ras Laffan and 8 at Das Island in the United Arab Emirates. September’s figure was 23 vessels.

Details:

• The numbers: S&P Global Energy data put October departures at 31 loaded LNG carriers, against 23 in September. The split was 23 cargoes loaded at Ras Laffan in Qatar and 8 at Das Island in the UAE, the first month since the war began that transits returned to this level.
• Analyst view: Eric Yep, an analyst at S&P Global Energy, said the UAE has returned to pre-war transit levels, while Qatar is running above 30% of its pre-war Hormuz crossings. He did not give a timeline for a full recovery in Qatari volumes.
• A second data set: Kpler ship-tracking data counted 42 LNG cargoes loaded in October, up from 27 in September. The two providers measure different things — departures through the strait versus loadings — and their totals are reported separately rather than reconciled.
• Qatari loadings: Kpler recorded 35 loadings at Ras Laffan in October, exceeding 2.7 million tonnes, the highest since the war started. Qatar had exported close to 6.2 million tonnes in February, leaving current volumes well below the pre-conflict baseline despite the monthly gain.
• Emirati volumes: Exports from Das Island stood at 7 loadings in October, unchanged from September, according to Kpler. The flat reading contrasts with the sharper month-on-month increase recorded on the Qatari side of the recovery.
• Ship-to-ship transfers: Two vessels that loaded at Ras Laffan and cleared the strait carried out ship-to-ship transfers off Marsa Sohar in Oman, Kpler data showed, a practice that allows cargoes to be redistributed without the original carrier completing the full voyage.
• The cargoes tracked: The SC Prestige transferred its LNG to the BW ENN Crystal Sky, now heading to South Korea. The Mufira moved its cargo to the Shandong Redwood and the Ejnan, both of which delivered the gas to Pakistan.
• The waterway: The Strait of Hormuz is the sole sea outlet for Qatari and Emirati LNG, making monthly transit counts the clearest available gauge of how far Gulf export flows have recovered from the February disruption.

Background:

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted in February when conflict broke out between the United States and Iran. Monthly LNG transits fell sharply afterwards, with Qatari exports dropping from roughly 6.2 million tonnes in February to a fraction of that level in the months that followed.

Between the lines:

The recovery is uneven. Das Island loadings were flat at 7 while Ras Laffan climbed to 35, matching Yep’s assessment that the UAE is back at pre-war levels while Qatar still runs at just over 30% of its previous transit share. The ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, feeding deliveries to South Korea and Pakistan, suggest cargo routing is still being adjusted after the strait.

What’s next

November transit counts from S&P Global Energy and Kpler will show whether Ras Laffan loadings keep climbing toward the 6.2 million tonnes Qatar shipped in February, and whether Das Island volumes move off 7 loadings.