ADNOC tankers keep Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude moving through Hormuz

Summary

• ADNOC's fleet is carrying Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude through the Strait of Hormuz, Windward's CEO said
• Iranian and Houthi attacks have pushed many owners to pull their tankers out of Gulf waters
• Daily rates for the biggest crude tankers have risen roughly 15-fold, reaching about $1 million

The latest

Abu Dhabi's ADNOC is using its own tanker fleet to move Iraqi and Kuwaiti crude through the Strait of Hormuz on a southern route, while other owners stay away, Windward co-founder and CEO Ami Daniel said on Aleph's Invested podcast. He put daily rates for the largest crude carriers at about 15 times prewar levels.

Details

• The operator: Daniel said ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi government-owned energy company, has distinguished itself by sending its tankers through Hormuz on a southern route to help Iraq and Kuwait keep exporting. Many other operators, he said, are unwilling to run the same risk under attacks attributed to Iran and the Houthis.
• The rates: Daily earnings for the largest crude tankers have climbed to roughly 15 times prewar levels, according to Daniel, who said he has seen rates near $1 million a day. Before the war, a vessel carrying up to 2 million barrels could earn about $60,000 a day.
• Going dark: Ship location signals across the Gulf have dropped 83% as crews avoid broadcasting their positions, Daniel said. He called the blackout a serious obstacle to tracking what is leaving the region, since public export figures depend heavily on those transmissions.
• The gap: Using satellite data, Windward estimated that about 90 million barrels more left the region over a 12-day stretch than public figures showed, Daniel said. He did not specify which dates the window covered or which countries accounted for the difference.
• The detour: Some Saudi tankers heading to Asia from the Red Sea port of Yanbu are sailing north through the Suez Canal, across the Mediterranean and around Africa to avoid Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea, Daniel said. The reroute adds roughly 35 days per voyage.
• Widening threat: Daniel said Iran has extended its attacks to waters off Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE port of Fujairah, moving the risk beyond the strait itself. Fujairah sits outside Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman and has long served as the alternative loading point for cargoes bypassing the chokepoint.
• The US role: American forces have helped keep some Gulf oil moving, Daniel said, while arguing the crisis cannot be settled militarily: "This is not solvable in a military way." He did not detail what naval escort or protection arrangements are in place.
• The source: Windward is a marine intelligence company headquartered in London with an office in Tel Aviv, using artificial intelligence and satellite data to track vessels and cargo. Daniel spoke with Michael Eisenberg of Israeli venture firm Aleph, an early investor in the company.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is the exit route for most Gulf crude, and Iraq and Kuwait depend on it almost entirely for seaborne exports. Neither has a comparable pipeline alternative, leaving their barrels exposed to any disruption inside the waterway.

Between the lines

The 83% fall in location signals and Windward's 90-million-barrel estimate point the same way: published export data is running below what is actually shipping. That matters for pricing, because traders read those public figures as the supply picture. On Daniel's numbers, a vessel earning $60,000 a day before the war now earns close to $1 million, the market pricing the risk that keeps most owners out.

What's next

Watch whether official Gulf export figures are revised toward satellite estimates, whether tanker day rates hold near $1 million, and whether attacks spread further from the strait toward Fujairah and Kuwaiti waters.

Source: Windward via Aleph's Invested podcast