$4 Trillion — GCC Equity Markets' Value, Saudi Share at 63%

Summary

• Combined GCC stock market capitalization reached roughly $4 trillion in September 2026, Fitch Ratings said.
• Saudi Arabia's Tadawul accounts for about 63% of that value; Abu Dhabi 18% and Dubai 7%.
• Fitch says the exchanges now supplement bank lending, but remain concentrated, less liquid and fragmented.

The latest

Gulf stock exchanges have grown into a roughly $4 trillion asset class as of September 2026, Fitch Ratings said, with development still uneven across the six member states. The agency said the venues are increasingly supplementing traditional bank lending by widening issuer access to capital, supporting longer funding tenors and improving pricing transparency. Regional debt outstanding stood separately at $1.2 trillion.

Details

• The concentration problem: Fitch flagged several structural constraints: GCC exchanges remain heavily concentrated in a small number of issuers, offer a narrower product range than most major emerging and developed markets, generally carry lower liquidity, and market structures across the six states stay fragmented.
• Aramco's weight: Concentration inside individual exchanges is severe. Saudi Aramco, rated A+ with a stable outlook by Fitch, made up about 65% of total Saudi market capitalization as of August 2026. On the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, five listed companies accounted for roughly 60% of market value.
• Debt markets: Regional debt markets reached $1.2 trillion of outstanding instruments at the end of the first half of 2026, with sukuk representing 42% of the total. Fitch said local Gulf exchanges remain more developed as equity platforms than as full multi-asset centers.
• Listings go offshore: Most Gulf sukuk and bonds, particularly hard-currency instruments, are still listed abroad. The London Stock Exchange hosted more than half of all dollar-denominated global sukuk outstanding at end-H1 2026, about 95% of it issued from the Middle East and mostly from GCC states.
• Foreign inflows rising: Foreign investors took 15% of Saudi primary sovereign debt issuance in the first half of 2026, up from 8% in the first quarter and 12% across 2025 as a whole, Fitch said, despite market volatility tied to the conflict with Iran.
• Index inclusion: Fitch highlighted the planned inclusion of Saudi riyal-denominated government sukuk in JPMorgan's emerging-market government bond index from 2027, which it expects to pull additional foreign capital in. The riyal program has been used to build a domestic yield curve and cut reliance on foreign-currency borrowing.
• Equity ownership: Foreign ownership of the Saudi main market's free float edged up to 12.7% at the end of August, from 12.4% at end-2025. Fitch expects the kingdom's decision to scrap the qualified foreign investor framework from February 2026 to broaden participation further.
• Rated coverage: Fitch covers 24 Saudi-listed companies representing about 84% of market capitalization as of August, all investment grade and 96% on stable outlook. It rates 15 Abu Dhabi issuers covering roughly 28% of that exchange's value, and 9 Dubai Financial Market names covering more than 40%.
• UAE specialization: The UAE has built a more segmented structure, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai focused on equities and Nasdaq Dubai operating mainly as a debt listing venue. Nasdaq Dubai hosted more than 28% of global sukuk outstanding at end-H1 2026, with over $140 billion listed, roughly 70% of it sukuk.

Between the lines

The $4 trillion headline figure rests on a narrow base: with Aramco alone at about 65% of Tadawul and five names at 60% of Abu Dhabi, index-level valuations track a handful of issuers. The offshore listing pattern — London and Nasdaq Dubai carrying the hard-currency sukuk — points to why Fitch separates equity depth from multi-asset capability.

What's next

Watch the 2027 start date for JPMorgan index inclusion of riyal government sukuk, foreign participation in Saudi sovereign issuance after the qualified foreign investor framework was scrapped, and whether hard-currency sukuk listings shift onshore.

Source: Fitch Ratings, via Economy Middle East