Saudi oil exports hold near 5.31 million barrels despite attacks

Summary

• Saudi crude exports averaged 5.31 million barrels a day in early October, Kepler data shows.
• Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping hit their highest weekly pace since the war began.
• Yanbu on the Red Sea has replaced Ras Tanura as the kingdom's main export outlet.

The latest

Saudi crude exports averaged 5.31 million barrels a day in the first week of October, the second-highest monthly pace since the war with Iran began, according to Kepler data reviewed by Asharq Bloomberg. The figure held up even as Iranian strikes on Gulf shipping intensified and Houthi missiles and drones continued to target Saudi territory.

Details

• The baseline: September averaged 7.12 million barrels a day, the strongest month since the war started and close to the 7.33 million recorded in February on the eve of the conflict, according to Kepler. October's number covers only the first week and is subject to revision at month-end.
• The attacks: Britain's Maritime Trade Operations agency logged 13 attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Arabian Gulf waters between the start of October and the 10th, the highest weekly rate since the war began, alongside Houthi missile and drone launches at Saudi territory.
• The collapse: Exports ran between 6.6 and 6.8 million barrels a day from October 2025 through January 2026, then fell to 4.58 million in March, 4.19 million in April and 3.65 million in May. August marked the floor at 3.41 million, the lowest reading since the war began.
• Ras Tanura: Shipments from the Arabian Gulf terminal, the world's largest of its kind, stopped entirely in April and May after loading roughly 6 million barrels a day before the war. They recovered to 306,000 barrels a day in June, 779,000 in July, 929,000 in August, then jumped to 4.13 million in September.
• This month's drop: Ras Tanura loadings fell this month under the weight of the Iranian escalation but still averaged about 2.6 million barrels a day, the second-highest level since February. Kepler data indicates the entire October decline versus September is concentrated at that single terminal.
• Yanbu's rise: The Red Sea port became the kingdom's primary export outlet during the war. Loadings ranged between 582,000 and 931,000 barrels a day before the conflict, climbed to 3.33 million in March and peaked at 4.27 million in June. October so far stands at 2.47 million, against 2.54 million in September.
• Unassigned cargoes: Kepler tracked shipments averaging 238,000 barrels a day in October whose loading port has not been identified, believed lifted at Yanbu. Counting those volumes lifts the port's October average to roughly 2.71 million barrels a day.
• The pipeline: The East-West pipeline resumed pumping crude to Yanbu on 22 September after a halt of about 10 days caused by a drone attack launched from Iraq. The restart kept the Red Sea route carrying the bulk of Saudi barrels through the autumn.
• Aramco's message: Saudi Aramco has told European customers, who normally receive cargoes from the Red Sea via the Suez Canal, that it will supply their full November crude allocations, Bloomberg reported citing people familiar with the matter.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz carries the bulk of Saudi crude shipped from Arabian Gulf terminals. Since the war with Iran began, Riyadh has leaned on the East-West pipeline to move barrels to Yanbu, bypassing the strait and loading onto the Red Sea instead.

Between the lines

The export resilience rests on one substitution: Yanbu absorbing what Ras Tanura cannot ship. That makes the Red Sea corridor the single point of failure, and the East-West pipeline its weakest link, as the 10-day shutdown after the Iraqi drone strike demonstrated. Houthi launches put that alternative route under its own pressure.

What's next

Kepler's full October tracking data at month-end will show whether the 5.31 million figure holds. Watch November loadings at Ras Tanura, further attacks logged by UK Maritime Trade Operations, and whether Aramco delivers the full European allocations it promised.

Source: Kepler, Bloomberg, UK Maritime Trade Operations