Brent nears $100 after China halts fuel product exports

Summary

• Brent rose about 2% Thursday to $99.77 a barrel after Chinese refiners suspended oil product exports.
• Diesel markets were already tight as refining capacity fell from attacks tied to Middle East and Ukraine wars.
• A Chinese export freeze removes a key diesel supply valve just as Washington pressures Europe over stockpiles.

The latest

Brent crude climbed roughly 2% on Thursday after Chinese refiners suspended oil product exports, Reuters reported, with December futures trading at $99.77 a barrel, up 1.8% from Wednesday's close. US WTI rose 37 cents to $90.79. The move extends a sharp run: the November Brent contract settled Wednesday at $103.50, capping a September gain of about 14%.

Details

• The suspension: Chinese refiners halted oil product exports to all destinations beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, four sources told Reuters. No end date was attached to the decision, and the refiners did not set out the volumes affected or the reasoning behind the freeze.
• The price picture: December Brent futures traded at $99.77 a barrel, a 1.8% gain on Wednesday's close, according to Reuters. The expiring November contract had settled at $103.50, while US West Texas Intermediate added 37 cents to reach $90.79 a barrel.
• September's run: Brent's November contract gained about 14% over the course of September, Reuters reported — a monthly move that had already pushed the benchmark above $100 before the Chinese decision added fresh upward pressure on refined products.
• Diesel squeeze: Global diesel supplies have tightened because refining capacity has fallen following attacks linked to the Middle East and Ukraine wars, according to Reuters. That loss of processing capacity, rather than crude availability alone, is what makes a Chinese product export halt consequential for fuel markets.
• Washington's pressure: The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel stocks or face a possible US diesel export ban, three sources told Reuters. The administration has not publicly set a deadline for the two governments to act.
• Saudi loadings: Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu this week after restarting its East-West Pipeline, Reuters reported. The pipeline carries crude from the kingdom's eastern fields to the Red Sea coast, bypassing the Gulf route to reach European and Mediterranean buyers.
• Gulf export data: Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with the 2025 average, after exports doubled during September. The bank's figure includes what it terms "dark exports" from ships sailing with transponders switched off.
• What the data implies: The Goldman Sachs estimate places Gulf crude flows back at their 2025 norm, meaning the current tightness sits on the refined product side of the market rather than in crude supply out of the Gulf.

Between the lines

Two of the drivers reported by Reuters point in opposite directions. Gulf crude exports have returned to their 2025 average and Saudi Red Sea loadings have restarted, which argues against a crude shortage. Yet Brent still rose, suggesting the bid is in refined fuels — where lost refining capacity and now a Chinese export freeze both bite. Washington's diesel stockpile demand on Berlin and Paris fits that same product-side strain.

What's next

Watch whether Chinese refiners set an end date for the export suspension, how Germany and France respond to the US stockpile demand, and whether Goldman Sachs revises its 23.3 million bpd Gulf export estimate in the coming week.

Source: Reuters, Goldman Sachs