LNG traffic through Hormuz hits wartime high in September

Summary

• Nineteen LNG cargoes left the Strait of Hormuz in September, the most since the war began.
• Qatar supplied 13 of them and the UAE 6, S&P Global Energy data show.
• Hormuz carried about a fifth of global crude and LNG before the fighting started.e

The latest

LNG shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly level of the war in September, with 19 cargoes transiting the waterway, according to S&P Global Energy. That is up from 15 in June, when a US-Iran pact began taking effect. Security risks have not reversed the trend, and Qatari-linked tankers have kept moving through the chokepoint in recent weeks.

Details

• The breakdown: S&P Global Energy counted 19 LNG cargoes through the Strait in September — 13 loaded from Qatar and 6 from the United Arab Emirates. The June comparison figure was 15 cargoes, recorded as a US-Iran agreement started to take hold.
• A second count: Kpler data put the September total higher, at 21 LNG cargoes exiting Hormuz, also up from 15 in June. The two data providers differ on the absolute number but agree on the direction and the scale of the month-on-month increase.
• The analyst's read: Eric Yep, senior principal analyst at S&P Global Energy, said transits accelerated in the second half of September. He added that if the pace holds into October, "we could see full-month transits recover to 25% of pre-war levels."
• Qatari vessels: More QatarEnergy-linked LNG carriers, both laden and in ballast, have crossed the strait in recent weeks despite the conflict, according to Kpler and LSEG ship-tracking data.
• This week's movements: Three additional LNG vessels carrying cargoes from Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal reappeared outside the waterway this week. Two are QatarEnergy-linked, Al Kharaitiyat and Al Gharrafa; the third, Milaha Qatar, is managed by Germany's Pronav Ship Management.
• Tracking gaps: Many vessels crossing the strait make dark transits, switching off their AIS transponders to avoid detection. That practice limits how precisely cargo flows through the chokepoint can be measured by ship-tracking services.
• The winter question: Yep said the central concern is whether the transits can be sustained through winter. He tied that to Iranian calculations and to whether US naval escort convoys can keep operating given their high cost.
• Escalation risk: Per Yep's assessment, a sharper Iranian military response becomes more likely if rising exports through Hormuz are read in Tehran as eroding its leverage over the waterway it borders.
• The stakes: Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies, making even partial disruption a factor in global gas pricing heading into the heating season.

Background

The United States and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28, 2026. Transits through Hormuz fell sharply afterward, with 15 LNG cargoes recorded in June as a US-Iran pact began to take effect.

Between the lines

The September recovery is partial, not a return to normal: Yep frames 25% of pre-war transit levels as an optimistic October outcome. The dark transits and the reliance on US naval escorts suggest the flow depends on arrangements that are both costly and reversible. Two providers reporting different totals, 19 and 21, also shows how much visibility the AIS blackouts have cost the market.

What's next

October's full-month transit count is the near-term test of whether the September pace holds, along with any Iranian military response and decisions on continuing US-escorted shipping convoys into winter.

Source: Reuters via ZAWYA; S&P Global Energy; Kpler; LSEG