Oman's oil earnings jump 81% as Hormuz bypass pays off

Summary

• Oman earned over $13 billion from oil exports in March-August 2026, up 81 percent year-on-year.
• Oman and the UAE are the only Gulf producers with higher oil revenues since the US-Iran war began.
• Analysts warn the gain may be temporary, driven by prices that are expected to fall.

The latest

Oman's oil export earnings climbed 81 percent year-on-year to more than $13 billion between March and August 2026, with export volumes up 28 percent, according to Iman Nasseri, senior vice president for Middle East and Asia at FGE NexantECA, cited by AGBI. The gain sets Oman apart from most Gulf producers since the US-Iran war began.

Details

• The divide: Oman and the UAE are the only two of five major Gulf crude producers to have raised oil export revenues since the war started, according to AGBI. Both hold export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and both benefited from higher energy prices during the same period.
• The UAE figures: The UAE earned an estimated $53 billion from oil exports in the March-August window, up 54 percent year-on-year, helped by ship-to-ship transfers and its pipeline to Fujairah outside Hormuz. UAE export volumes rose 14 percent between January and August.
• The losers: Kuwait and Iraq, which have limited options to move crude without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, suffered far larger revenue losses, according to AGBI. No revenue figures were published for either producer.
• Saudi cushion: Saudi Arabia's estimated March-August export earnings fell just 3 percent to $79 billion. The kingdom was cushioned by its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and by higher prices offsetting lower shipped volumes.
• The economist's read: Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said Omani and Emirati volumes held up well against pre-war levels on top of the price effect, while Saudi Arabia leaned more heavily on prices alone to protect its earnings.
• The warning: Tuvey described the uptick for Oman and the UAE as potentially "a temporary windfall," judging that oil prices are likely to fall in future. He did not specify a timeframe for that decline.
• The hidden cost: Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, cautioned that the extra export income does not capture the wider economic costs of the war, including higher government spending and the impact on non-oil sectors such as tourism and logistics.
• Risk comparison: Nasseri assessed that Oman's position carries less risk than the UAE's, because part of the Emirati export business depends on keeping ship-to-ship transfers running. He projected Oman would remain the clear winner going forward.
• Growth forecast: Capital Economics estimates the UAE economy will contract 1.5 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 8.3 percent growth in 2027. No comparable projection was published for Oman.
• Also: Both countries ship crude through routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for most Gulf crude exports. Producers with pipelines or terminals outside it — Oman's Indian Ocean coastline, the UAE's Fujairah line, Saudi Arabia's East-West route — retain shipping options that Kuwait and Iraq largely lack.

Between the lines

The geography of export infrastructure, not production capacity, is sorting winners from losers in this period. Oman's 28 percent volume growth alongside its 81 percent revenue jump suggests buyers rerouted demand to a seller outside the chokepoint, while Saudi Arabia's 3 percent revenue dip on price strength alone points to lost volume. Malik's caution and Tuvey's windfall language both frame the gains as conditional on a price level neither expects to hold.

What's next

Watch whether oil prices retreat as Tuvey expects, whether ship-to-ship transfers supporting UAE exports continue uninterrupted, and whether Capital Economics' projected 1.5 percent UAE contraction in 2026 materialises.

Source: AGBI, citing FGE NexantECA and Capital Economics