Gulf crude exports hit 24.6 million bpd despite Hormuz tanker attacks

Summary

• Gulf crude and condensate flows peaked at 24.6 million barrels a day last week, Kpler estimates.
• Attacks on ships near the Arabian Peninsula doubled to 32 in October from 16 in September.
• Producers are keeping barrels moving to recover billions in sales lost during the conflict.

The latest

Crude and condensate flows out of the Arabian Gulf peaked at 24.6 million barrels a day in the week ending October 18, according to Kpler data, with little visible damage from the intensifying Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. Loadings remain volatile, and the month-to-date average still sits below pre-war levels. A rival tracker puts the same week far lower.

Details

• The headline figure: Kpler estimated flows of crude and condensates from the Arabian Gulf at 24.6 million barrels a day for the seven days ending October 18, the strongest week in the current series. Shipments remain volatile week to week, and the October average has not yet returned to pre-war levels.
• The competing count: Vortexa did not register the same weekly jump, estimating flows over the identical seven-day window at roughly 18 million barrels a day. The gap underlines how hard export levels are to pin down while most tankers are sailing without broadcasting their position signals.
• Where they agree: Both firms put pre-conflict flows at a minimum of 18.5 million barrels a day, giving a shared baseline against which the current numbers can be read, even though their weekly estimates diverge sharply.
• The monthly average: Since the start of October, Kpler estimates Middle East oil flows at about 16.7 million barrels a day. Vortexa puts the same period at 15.4 million barrels a day. Both figures sit below the pre-war baseline the two firms agree on.
• The attacks: Strikes on vessels near the Arabian Peninsula doubled during October to 32, compared with 16 across the whole of September, an escalation in both frequency and the scale of damage inflicted on commercial ships.
• How cargoes move: Loadings tend to cluster in tight windows. Ships cross the Strait of Hormuz in convoys to transfer cargoes to tankers waiting outside the strait, then return to load again, producing the uneven weekly pattern visible in the tracking data.
• The Gulf response: Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait are using their own tankers to keep crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz, insulating exports from the reluctance of commercial operators to enter the waterway.
• Production side: Saudi Arabia has lifted output by more than a third, while the UAE has reached record production levels, supplying the barrels behind the elevated shipping volumes.
• The economics: Oil remains the backbone of regional economies, and producers have spent months competing for buyers to recover billions of dollars in sales lost during the conflict, which explains the push to keep exporting through the attacks.
• What is counted: Kpler draws on tanker transits through Hormuz, net ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, Red Sea port exports and the Gulf of Oman terminals in the UAE and Oman. Vortexa counts total shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Oman.

Between the lines

The divergence between the two trackers is itself the story: with tankers running dark through Hormuz, the 6.6 million barrel-a-day gap between Kpler and Vortexa for the same week reflects differing methodologies and what each firm includes. Both nonetheless point the same direction — flows holding near, though still under, the shared pre-war baseline.

What's next

Watch whether October's monthly average closes the gap to the 18.5 million barrels-a-day pre-war baseline both firms cite, and whether the attack count keeps climbing past the 32 recorded so far this month.

Source: Bloomberg, Kpler, Vortexa