OPEC+ Set to Freeze December Oil Output, Sources Tell Reuters

Summary

• Eight OPEC+ producers have tentatively agreed to leave December 2026 output targets unchanged, sources told Reuters.
• The alliance has held production levels steady since completing the unwind of 1.65 million barrels per day in September.
• Stability protects revenue for Gulf producers and Iraq ahead of a contested 2027 quota review.

The latest

Eight OPEC+ producers have tentatively agreed to keep December 2026 oil production targets unchanged, sources familiar with the alliance's discussions told Reuters, ahead of a formal meeting held Sunday by video conference. The group's attention is shifting instead to a capacity review that will set the baselines governing 2027 quotas.

Details

• The eight countries: The producers party to the voluntary output adjustments are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan, according to Reuters. These are the members whose individual decisions move the alliance's headline supply figure, rather than the full OPEC+ membership.
• The numbers: A cut of roughly 2 million barrels per day remains in force through the end of 2026, Reuters reported. That tranche is separate from the 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary reductions the group finished returning to the market in September.
• The freeze: The tentative agreement extends a pause that has been in place since September, when the alliance completed the phased unwinding of its 1.65 million barrels per day tranche. Since then the group has refrained from any further adjustment to output levels.
• The meeting: The formal session was scheduled for Sunday via video conference, according to Reuters. The alliance has not announced the outcome or any change to the timetable for the remaining cuts.
• The 2027 question: The group is now turning to a review of member production capacity during the fourth quarter of 2026, Reuters reported. The exercise is designed to establish the baseline levels that will determine each country's quota for 2027.
• Why baselines matter: Baselines are the reference figures from which each member's quota is calculated, meaning a higher assessed capacity translates into a larger permitted share of any future increase. That makes the capacity review the most consequential item on the alliance's near-term agenda.
• What remains cut: The alliance has not set out a schedule for removing the residual reductions still on the books. Plans for unwinding what is left of the cuts are tied to the outcome of the same capacity review, according to Reuters.
• The reporting trail: Reuters' account of the tentative agreement was carried by CNBC and by the Indian news agency ANI, both of which framed the decision as a hold on December targets with the focus moving to 2027 quotas.

Background

OPEC+ spent much of 2026 gradually restoring barrels it had withheld, completing the return of a 1.65 million barrels per day tranche in September. A separate, larger cut of about 2 million barrels per day was left untouched and runs to the end of the year.

Between the lines

A December freeze is the low-risk option for the eight: it leaves the 2 million barrels per day cut intact and avoids committing to supply decisions before the capacity review fixes each member's baseline. Because baselines determine shares of any future increase, members with room to argue for higher assessed capacity have an incentive to keep the current ceiling in place until that argument is settled.

What's next

Watch for the alliance's formal communique confirming December targets, and for the fourth-quarter capacity review that will set 2027 baselines and any schedule for removing the remaining 2 million barrels per day of cuts.

Source: Reuters, via CNBC and ANI